Flu Season Arrives Early, With Hospitalizations at a 15-Year High for Late October

Influenza is spreading faster than usual for this point in the fall, according to the latest federal surveillance data, with hospitalization rates among the highest recorded for late October in a decade and a half.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's weekly FluView report, covering the week ending Oct. 24 and published Oct. 30, describes early-season flu activity as higher than typically observed at this time of year. Nationally, 7.6 percent of specimens tested at clinical laboratories came back positive for influenza that week, up from the week before, pushing the season-to-date positivity rate to 6 percent.

An Early, Uneven Season

Nearly all of the influenza A viruses subtyped by public health laboratories, 98.9 percent, were identified as A(H1N1)pdm09, the same subtype that has dominated since late spring. CDC data show most of those viruses belong to a genetically diverse subclade designated D.3.1.1, and agency scientists say it remains too early to know which strains will ultimately predominate or how well this season's vaccine will match circulating virus. Health officials quoted in regional coverage of the early surge have pointed to mutations circulating within that H1N1 lineage as one likely factor behind the season's early start, though researchers caution the effect of those mutations on severity remains unclear.

The clearest signal so far is in hospitalizations. CDC's FluSurv-NET system recorded 1,474 laboratory-confirmed flu hospitalizations nationwide between Oct. 4 and Oct. 24, a rate of 1.3 per 100,000 people for the week; adjusted estimates put the true rate between 1.9 and 2.5. CDC says that is the highest rate recorded for this point in the season, measured by calendar week, since the 2010-2011 flu season. Adults 65 and older are bearing the brunt, with a hospitalization rate of 13.3 per 100,000. Two pediatric deaths were reported in the same week, one from the new 2026-2027 season and one a delayed report from last season, which closed with 199 pediatric deaths overall.

Outpatient visits are also climbing, though more modestly. CDC's ILINet surveillance system found that 2.4 percent of doctor visits nationwide were for influenza-like illness that week, still below the 2.9 percent national baseline that signals widespread transmission, but the Pacific Northwest region, which includes Alaska, Idaho, Oregon and Washington, had already crossed its own regional threshold.

CDC's own early-season estimate puts the toll so far at roughly 1 million illnesses, 16,000 hospitalizations and 900 deaths nationwide, a tally expected to climb quickly as the season progresses. The agency's FluSight forecasting model projects hospital admissions could roughly double over the next three weeks, reaching between 4,800 and 23,200 for the week ending Nov. 14.

Despite the uncertainty over strain match, federal health officials are not changing their core guidance. CDC continues to recommend annual vaccination for everyone six months and older, including people who have not yet gotten a flu shot this fall, and says prescription antivirals work best when started within the first two days of symptoms, particularly for older adults, young children and people with underlying health conditions.