Democrats hold double-digit lead in new midterm polls as Trump approval hits term low

Two independent national surveys released this week show Democrats holding a double-digit lead on the generic congressional ballot, the widest margins either poll has recorded this election cycle, as President Trump's approval rating sinks to the lowest point of his second term just 40 days before the Nov. 3 midterms.

An Emerson College Polling survey conducted Sept. 21-22 found registered voters favoring Democratic congressional candidates over Republicans by 11 points, 53 percent to 42 percent. A separate Economist/YouGov survey, fielded Sept. 18-21, put the Democratic edge at 14 points among likely voters. A third poll, conducted by PBS News, NPR and Marist in mid-September, found Democrats ahead 53 percent to 41 percent, with independents breaking for Democrats by 25 points.

Taken together, the three surveys, using different methodologies and voter screens, point in the same direction: a Democratic advantage that has hardened rather than faded as the campaign enters its final weeks.

The numbers

In the Emerson poll, Mr. Trump's job approval stood at 39 percent, with 58 percent disapproving, which the pollster described as the highest disapproval mark of his current term. Fifty-six percent of respondents said his second term had gone worse than they expected, up from 43 percent when Emerson asked the same question in April 2025. Independent voters, who broke for Mr. Trump in 2024, now favor Democratic candidates 60 percent to 31 percent in the Emerson survey; Hispanic voters favor Democrats 64 percent to 31 percent.

The PBS News/NPR/Marist poll found something similar among independents specifically: 54 percent said they were motivated to vote against Mr. Trump this fall, compared with 12 percent who said they were voting to support him. That poll also found independents favoring Democrats on the economy by 19 points, on gas prices by 26 points and on foreign policy by 22 points.

Emerson's tracking shows the Democratic margin has grown unevenly over the past year: from a 1-point edge in September 2025 to 4 points in October, 6 points in December, 8 points in January and a range of 9 to 11 points from April through August, with a brief dip to 8 points in August before rebounding to 11 points this month.

How the numbers moved

Pollsters and strategists point first to the economy. Consumer prices rose 3.4 percent over the 12 months ending in August, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Consumer Price Index report, with gasoline prices up 27.4 percent year-over-year and energy costs driving much of the monthly increase. The Federal Reserve responded on Sept. 16 by raising its benchmark interest rate a quarter point, to a range of 3.75 to 4 percent, its first increase in three years, citing inflation that "remains elevated."

In the Emerson poll, the economy topped voters' list of concerns at 41 percent, well ahead of threats to democracy at 17 percent, immigration at 13 percent and health care at 12 percent. Sixty percent of respondents said Mr. Trump's economic policies had made the economy worse, up 14 points from an April 2025 reading of 49 percent. Notably, voters who named the economy their top issue favored the Democratic candidate 55 percent to 41 percent — a reversal from 2024, when economy-focused voters broke consistently for Republicans.

Spencer Kimball, Emerson College Polling's executive director, cautioned against reading too much into any single number. "While the generic ballot test doesn't capture nuances of individual races, it's an important metric to gauge the magnitude of a potential Democratic wave," he said, adding that the economic reversal among independents was "notable" given the party's 2024 advantage on the issue.

Who is affected

The numbers carry the most weight in competitive House districts and a handful of Senate races that will decide control of both chambers. Recent state-level polling has shown Democratic candidates leading in Michigan's open Senate race and in New Hampshire, among other contests both parties consider competitive this cycle. Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, said the environment favors Democrats broadly but cautioned that translating a national lead into specific seats is far from automatic.

"The Democrats are sitting in a very good place. There's a lot of grumbling in the electorate," Miringoff said.

He noted that a Democratic gain of roughly 12 House seats would count as a solid outcome, while a wave of 40 seats — the scale Democrats saw in 2018 — is "not remotely in play" based on current data. Historically, the president's party loses an average of 27 House seats and three Senate seats in a midterm election, according to figures cited in the PBS News/NPR/Marist analysis, though 2018 offers a cautionary comparison: Democrats led the generic ballot by 12 points in polling that September, only to see the margin narrow to roughly 6 points by Election Day.

Reaction

The parties' national committees offered predictably divergent readings. A Democratic National Committee spokesperson, Kendall Witmer, said the party had "momentum on our side" heading into November and pointed to continued voter-outreach spending through Election Day. Natalie Baldassarre, national press secretary for the Republican National Committee, dismissed the polling as "a snapshot in time, not a crystal ball" and pointed instead to the party's financial position, which she described as a "record-sized war chest."

Federal Election Commission campaign-finance filings show Republican Party committees have maintained a substantial cash advantage over their Democratic counterparts through the current cycle, a gap Republican strategists say could blunt the effect of an unfavorable national environment by allowing the party to outspend Democrats in the most competitive districts.

Democratic strategist Joel Payne called the depth of independent opposition to Mr. Trump "significant" and potentially "devastating" for Republican candidates in swing districts. But Republican strategist Melik Abdul acknowledged the numbers were unwelcome news within his own party, saying, according to reporting on the polling, that "these numbers are concerning to Republicans behind the scenes."

What happens next

With 40 days remaining before Election Day, both parties are shifting resources toward turnout operations in the districts and states most likely to decide majority control. Pollsters caution that the environment could still shift: enthusiasm gaps tend to narrow as elections near, and the 2018 cycle showed double-digit generic-ballot leads can shrink considerably by November. Even so, the consistency across three differently constructed surveys — all showing Democrats with leads in the 11-to-14-point range and independents breaking sharply away from the president — has strategists in both parties treating the current environment as more durable than earlier dips suggested.

Additional national and state-level polling is expected in the coming weeks as both parties finalize advertising and field spending ahead of the November vote.