Fall storms lift Lake Powell more than 20 feet, easing a historic Southwest drought

A series of intense autumn storms across the Southwest has pushed Lake Powell, the nation's second-largest reservoir, up more than 20 feet since its mid-September low, delivering an unexpected reprieve after years of megadrought on the Colorado River. The surge, driven by heavy rain that flooded normally dry washes and creeks in Arizona, Utah and Colorado in late October and early November, added more water to the reservoir than this year's spring snowmelt did, according to federal water data and reporting. One federal hydrologist described the rainfall as "somewhat of an unexpected boost from Mother Nature."

Lake Powell stood at about 3,518 feet of elevation and roughly 22% of its live capacity at the end of September, according to the Bureau of Reclamation's Glen Canyon Dam operations data, still more than 180 feet below full pool. Even after the October rise, 15 of the reservoir's 17 boat launches remained unusable as of Nov. 6. In Flagstaff, Arizona, officials said Upper Lake Mary, which supplies up to 40% of the city's water, took in more than 3 billion gallons since early October — equivalent to more than two years of typical inflow in a single weekend of storms.

Drought isn't over

Federal climate data show the rain was exceptional: Arizona recorded its second-wettest September since record-keeping began in 1895, according to the government's Drought.gov monitoring service, even though the state's January-through-September period still ranked among its driest on record overall. Scientists attributed part of the rain burst to El Niño conditions, which are expected to keep boosting precipitation across the region for several more months. Even so, the Bureau of Reclamation's own five-year projections put the chance of Lake Powell falling back below key drought trigger points at double digits in 2026 and 2027, and officials have cautioned that single storms do not resolve a shortfall built up over two decades of below-average flows on the Colorado River.

The Bureau of Reclamation said it is unlikely to revise Lake Powell or Lake Mead release volumes until it has a clearer read on snowpack, typically around April, according to water managers quoted in AP reporting carried by the Baltimore Sun. Under the current Colorado River management framework, California, Arizona and Nevada are set to cut their collective water use by 1.25 million acre-feet a year over the next two years, a plan Arizona and Nevada are separately challenging in court.