Hurricane Nolo Stalls South of Hawaii's Big Island, Threatens Catastrophic Flooding

Hurricane Nolo stalled roughly 150 miles south of Hawaii's Big Island on Friday and into Saturday, churning in place before forecasters expect it to strengthen into a major hurricane and then curve away to the west. The storm has already triggered a hurricane watch and tropical storm warning for Hawaii County, a tropical storm watch for Maui County, and a rare pre-landfall federal emergency declaration, even though its center is expected to remain offshore.

The threat is not wind at the coastline but rain over the mountains. The National Weather Service and the National Hurricane Center have warned for two days that Nolo's slow movement and deep tropical moisture could dump a season's worth of rain on the Big Island's already saturated southeast slopes in a matter of hours, raising the risk of flash flooding and mudslides in terrain still recovering from an earlier storm, a scenario forecasters have described as potentially catastrophic and life-threatening.

The numbers

As of the Hurricane Center's Saturday afternoon advisory, Nolo was a Category 2 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph, centered about 145 miles south of South Point and roughly 350 miles south-southeast of Honolulu. Forecasters expect additional strengthening, with the storm reaching Category 3 intensity — winds of 115 mph or higher — as it makes its closest pass to the island later Saturday, and some guidance suggests it could briefly reach Category 4 strength, near 140 mph, before turning west early next week.

Rainfall is the bigger number. The Hurricane Center's advisory calls for 8 to 12 inches across the eastern and southern Big Island, with isolated totals as high as 16 inches; earlier forecasts had floated totals as high as 25 to 35 inches before track adjustments pulled the heaviest bands slightly offshore. Storm surge of 1 to 3 feet is expected along Hawaii County's coast, and forecasters have warned of life-threatening surf and rip currents on east- and south-facing shores as swells build through the weekend. Maui County, under a tropical storm watch, could see 4 to 8 inches of rain, with isolated totals near 10 inches on the windward slopes of Haleakala.

How the islands got here

Nolo is the fourth tropical cyclone to threaten Hawaii this season, part of what forecasters describe as an unusually active year in the Central Pacific tied to El Niño conditions warming the ocean south of the islands. In August, Hurricane Lala passed close enough to the Big Island to knock out power to thousands of households for days and was blamed for one death when floodwaters swept away a home in the same southeastern district now bracing for Nolo. That history matters this week: emergency managers say the ground in the Puna and Kaʻu districts never fully dried out, leaving soil more prone to landslides and streams more likely to overtop their banks even before Nolo's rain begins falling in earnest.

Meteorologists have also noted the storm's track is unusual, with some coverage describing Nolo as a "zig-zagging" system that has kept shifting course over open water for days before stalling south of the island for more than 24 hours, a pattern the Hurricane Center attributes to a weak steering ridge only now building in from the north. Some forecasters have said a system this strong has not tracked this close to the Big Island since storms in the 1950s, a comparison that has driven home the seriousness of the threat even though the core of the hurricane is forecast to stay offshore.

Who is affected

Hawaii County government offices and public schools closed Thursday and Friday, and Maui County schools closed Friday as well, according to West Hawaii Today's reporting on the closures. Southwest Airlines suspended flights into Hilo International Airport, leaving Hawaiian Airlines as the only carrier still operating there Friday afternoon. Hawaii County opened shelters at Yano Hall, Naʻalehu Elementary School, the Robert N. Herkes Gym and the Keaʻau Armory, all accepting pets with owner-supplied carriers, and the Hawaiʻi Emergency Management Agency said shelters were opening across all four counties as residents in flood-prone areas were urged to move to higher ground.

The communities most exposed are the same rural, lower-income districts battered by Lala a month earlier — small farms and homesteads on the Big Island's windward side where roads wash out easily and cell service is already spotty. Tourism-dependent Kona and Waikoloa on the leeward coast are forecast to see far less rain, but resorts across the island canceled outdoor activities and briefed guests on shelter locations. On Oʻahu and Kauaʻi, the practical effect has been limited to gusty winds and rough surf rather than flooding, though officials there are also monitoring the storm in case its track shifts.

The response

Governor Josh Green requested a pre-landfall federal emergency declaration, which the White House approved Friday, according to a news release from the governor's office. The declaration covers Honolulu and the counties of Hawaii, Maui and Kauai, unlocking direct federal assistance for search-and-rescue staging, generators and fuel, and debris clearance at a 75 percent federal cost share — before a single drop of the storm's heaviest rain has fallen.

"Protecting the people of Hawaiʻi is our highest priority, and this approval gives our state the resources we need before this storm's worst impacts arrive," Green said in the release, adding that Hawaii is "facing this storm while continuing response and recovery operations from several prior disasters."

That last point has become a refrain among state officials this year. This is the third storm-related emergency declaration Hawaii has issued this month alone, and county civil defense officials have leaned heavily on the same shelter staff, equipment caches and public-alert systems used during Lala just weeks earlier. Federal and state disaster money that might otherwise have gone toward long-term recovery from that storm is now being redirected toward pre-positioning ahead of Nolo, a pattern local leaders say is straining budgets and personnel even before this hurricane season ends in November.

What happens next

The Hurricane Center expects Nolo to remain nearly stationary through Saturday before turning west with increasing forward speed on Saturday night and into Sunday, pulling its heaviest rain bands away from the Big Island by early next week. Forecasters caution that any wobble in the track could keep the heaviest rain over land longer than currently modeled, and flash flood warnings are likely to be issued and adjusted through the weekend as real-time rainfall totals come in. The tropical storm warning for Hawaii County and watch for Maui County will likely remain in effect at least into Sunday, according to the latest advisories, with officials urging residents not to stand down until the Hurricane Center formally lifts them.

Beyond the immediate forecast, state lawmakers are expected to revisit longer-term flood mitigation funding for the Puna and Kaʻu districts once Nolo clears the islands, building on discussions that stalled after Lala. County officials have also said they will assess whether shelter capacity and emergency-alert coverage kept pace with a season that has now produced four significant storms, a review that is likely to shape how Hawaii budgets for hurricane response for the remainder of the year.