Democrats Bet $163 Million on Making the Midterms About Trump

Democratic candidates and the outside groups backing them have put more than $163 million into television advertising that names or shows President Trump since the start of September, a sum that dwarfs the roughly $11 million Republicans have spent mentioning him over the same stretch, according to an Associated Press analysis of data from the ad-tracking firm AdImpact published Friday. The gap, drawn from AdImpact's monitoring of broadcast, cable and streaming buys, amounts to one of the clearest statistical pictures yet of how the two parties are approaching the final 18 days before the November 3 midterms: Democrats are campaigning against the president by name, and Republicans, on the whole, are not.

The pattern holds even though Mr. Trump is not on any ballot this year. Addressing supporters this fall, the president has repeatedly urged voters to treat the midterms as a verdict on his second term. Democratic media strategists appear content to grant that framing, betting that casting Republican candidates as extensions of an unpopular White House will do more to turn out their base than a message built around local issues alone.

The numbers

The AP's review of AdImpact's data found that Democratic-aligned ads mentioning Mr. Trump have aired nearly 180,000 times since September 1, compared with about 16,000 airings for Republican spots that do the same. Despite that imbalance, Mr. Trump was only the fourth most frequent subject in Democratic House and Senate advertising over the period, trailing ads about health care costs, taxes and messaging that paints Republican opponents as beholden to special interests. For Republican campaigns, Mr. Trump ranked 33rd among ad subjects, well behind taxes and crime, the two issues the party has leaned on most heavily.

Those figures sit inside a far larger advertising war. Democrats have spent or reserved roughly $1.8 billion on television, streaming and digital advertising across every federal, state and local race this cycle, AdImpact's tracking shows, while Republicans have spent or reserved about $2.2 billion. Both totals are on pace to make 2026 the most expensive midterm cycle on record.

How the parties got here

The divergence reflects a strategic calculation that has held for most of the past decade: Democratic operatives have long treated Mr. Trump as their most reliable tool for energizing their own voters, even in cycles when he is not personally on the ballot. This year Democratic ad-makers have had fresh material to work with, tying Republican incumbents to the administration's tariff policy, its continued military engagement in Iran, and premium increases on health insurance that Democrats blame on administration decisions.

Some of that material has a paper trail in Congress's own voting record. In Pennsylvania's 1st District, Democratic ads have repeatedly noted that the incumbent, Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, voted for a war-powers resolution directing the president to withdraw U.S. forces from hostilities with Iran. The House adopted that measure, H.Con.Res. 86, on a 215-208 vote on June 3, with Fitzpatrick one of four Republicans who joined nearly every Democrat in favor, according to the official tally recorded by the Office of the Clerk. A companion effort in the Senate, a joint resolution from Sen. Chris Van Hollen of Maryland, fell two votes short of discharge in a 49-47 roll call the following month, a result the Senate's own record shows split almost entirely along party lines. Those votes have become raw material for ad scripts on both sides of the aisle, with Republicans citing Fitzpatrick's break from the party as evidence of independence and Democrats citing it as proof that even Republicans have misgivings about the administration's conduct of the war.

Who is affected

The spending is concentrated in the races both parties consider most competitive. In Georgia, Sen. Jon Ossoff's campaign has put close to $3 million behind a single ad tying his Republican opponent, Rep. Mike Collins, to the administration's tariffs, the Iran conflict and rising insurance premiums, according to the AP review; neither that spot nor the race is mentioned in the most recent statements posted to Ossoff's official Senate website, which is reserved for his legislative work rather than campaign messaging. In Pennsylvania's 1st District, every Democratic ad aired against Fitzpatrick since September 1 has mentioned Mr. Trump, a bloc of four spots that ran roughly 2,000 times and were paid for in part by House Majority PAC, the leading House Democratic outside-spending group, whose 2026 cycle filings are available through the Federal Election Commission. Fitzpatrick's Democratic challenger, Bucks County Commissioner Bob Harvie, is one of the few Democrats in a true swing district directly benefiting from the strategy.

Republicans running in redder territory have taken the opposite tack. In Idaho, Sen. Jim Risch, whose official Senate office has highlighted his record on the 2025 tax law, has aired ads crediting work he did "alongside" the president to pass tax cuts, one of the few instances of a Republican invoking Mr. Trump by name in a paid spot this fall. The asymmetry suggests the president remains an asset in solidly Republican states and a liability almost everywhere else on the competitive map.

What both sides are saying

Republican strategists argue the Democratic approach reflects a lack of any affirmative message of their own. Natalie Baldassarre, a spokesperson for the Republican National Committee, said the volume of spending amounted to Democrats "lighting money on fire," arguing it was evidence the party has nothing beyond opposition to the president to offer voters. Katarina Flicker, a spokesperson for House Majority PAC, countered that the ads are not simply about Mr. Trump but about affordability, saying polling and focus groups consistently show it is voters' top concern and that they blame "corrupt politicians" for the cost of living.

Alex Conant, a Republican strategist not affiliated with either campaign, offered a more detached read of the numbers.

"Democrats want this election to be a referendum on Trump," Conant said, adding that Republicans are testing a wider range of messages this cycle because "there's not a cookie-cutter Republican ad this year."

What happens next

With 18 days until polls close, both parties are expected to keep pouring money into the races the AP's analysis identifies as bellwethers, including the Georgia Senate contest and a cluster of Pennsylvania and Idaho House and Senate seats. AdImpact's tracking suggests the pace of spending will accelerate through the final two weeks, as reservations already booked for October and early November come due. Whether the Trump-heavy approach pays off for Democrats will not be clear until Election Day, but the ad data makes plain that, whatever the president's approval numbers, Democratic strategists have concluded his name is still their most effective weapon on the air.