Sununu and Pappas win New Hampshire Senate primaries, setting up battle for Shaheen's seat

New Hampshire voters on Tuesday chose a former Republican senator making a political comeback and a sitting Democratic congressman to compete for one of the most closely watched Senate seats in the country, setting up a November matchup that both parties consider central to the fight for control of the chamber.

Former Sen. John E. Sununu won the Republican nomination over former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown, while Rep. Chris Pappas, a four-term Democrat from Manchester, defeated primary challenger Karishma Manzur for the Democratic nod. The two will face off on November 3 for the seat being vacated by Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, who announced last year she would not seek a fourth term, closing out three decades in elected office in the state.

Lopsided primary wins, a tight general election ahead

Both nominees won by wide margins. Unofficial returns compiled by The Associated Press showed Sununu defeating Brown by roughly a two-to-one margin, and Pappas beating Manzur, a medical scientist running to Pappas's left, by a similar spread. Neither contest was seriously in doubt once polls closed, according to news organizations tracking returns, including New Hampshire Public Radio's election-night coverage and CBS News's results tracker.

The lopsided primary margins mask what analysts on both sides expect to be a far tighter general election. New Hampshire has not sent a Republican to the Senate since 2010, but the state has also shown a willingness to split its ticket, and Republicans currently hold the governorship, both chambers of the state legislature and the executive council. Neither party's presidential nominee has carried the state by wide margins in recent cycles, and the state's large bloc of undeclared voters, who can choose either party's ballot on primary day, routinely decides statewide contests by only a few percentage points.

Tuesday's primary also settled the state's two U.S. House nominations and a Republican field for governor, but the Senate race drew the bulk of national attention and outside spending, a reflection of how few genuinely competitive Senate contests remain on the map this cycle. National party committees, super PACs and outside groups have already begun reserving fall advertising time in the state's media markets, betting that New Hampshire will be one of a small number of races that determines whether Republicans hold or lose their Senate majority.

Two familiar names, two different paths back to Washington

Sununu, 62, is attempting a return to a seat he lost in 2008 after a single term. He also served three terms in the U.S. House beginning in 1997. He is the son of former Gov. John H. Sununu and brother of former Gov. Chris Sununu, giving him substantial name recognition in a small state where personal and family ties carry outsized weight in statewide races. According to his campaign finance filings with the Federal Election Commission, his Senate campaign had raised more than $4.1 million and retained roughly $3 million in cash on hand as of mid-August, giving him a financial base heading into the fall.

Pappas, 46, has represented New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District, which covers Manchester and the state's eastern and southeastern communities, since 2019. He previously served in the state House, as Hillsborough County treasurer and on the New Hampshire Executive Council. He was the first openly gay member of the U.S. House elected from New Hampshire. His official biography and committee assignments, which include seats on the Transportation and Infrastructure and Veterans' Affairs committees, are listed on the Office of the Clerk's member directory. His Senate campaign reported more than $15 million in total receipts through mid-August, according to his FEC candidate filings, reflecting the national money both parties are already pouring into the race.

Who the race affects

The contest matters well beyond New Hampshire's roughly 1.4 million residents. Republicans currently hold 53 Senate seats, and Democrats need a net gain of four to retake the majority, making every competitive open seat consequential to national control of the chamber for the final two years of President Trump's term. Party strategists on both sides have identified New Hampshire as one of a handful of genuine toss-up contests this cycle, alongside a small number of other open or vulnerable seats. National party committees are expected to spend heavily on the race through November, and both campaigns have already begun airing general-election messaging aimed at independent voters, who make up the largest share of the state's registered electorate.

Early lines of attack

Both candidates previewed the general-election contours in their primary-night remarks. Pappas cast Sununu's post-Senate career, which included work in the private sector after he left office in 2009, as evidence he had grown disconnected from ordinary voters, telling reporters that Sununu "gave huge tax breaks to pharma companies and sided with the insurance industry, and then he went to work for them and made $35 million." Sununu, in turn, argued that his rival lacked independence from party leadership in Washington.

"When it comes to standing up for New Hampshire, I take a back seat to no one. I'm not worried about reelection. I'm not running for any other job. I don't want to make anyone in Washington happy. I know that as your senator, I'll have one job: stand up for the people of New Hampshire every single day," Sununu told supporters after his primary win.

Democratic strategists dismissed Republican optimism about the seat, with one Senate Majority PAC spokesperson quoted by NBC News calling GOP confidence in the state "wish-casting." Republicans counter that affordability concerns, including on taxes and health costs, give Sununu an opening with the independent voters who decide most competitive New Hampshire elections.

Pappas has leaned heavily on cost-of-living arguments in his early general-election messaging, telling supporters after his win that voters across the state kept raising the same complaint about the price of groceries, gas and health coverage. Sununu has countered by promising to focus on congressional accountability measures, including term limits and changes to how lawmakers are compensated during government shutdowns, positioning himself as a check on both parties in Washington rather than a reliable partisan vote.

What happens next

The general election is set for November 3, alongside contests for the state's two U.S. House seats, the governorship and the full state legislature. Both campaigns are expected to file their next round of FEC fundraising disclosures in the coming weeks, offering the first real accounting of how much outside money has flowed into the race since the primary. National Republican and Democratic Senate campaign committees have both signaled the seat will be a top spending priority through the fall, and debates between the two nominees are expected to be scheduled in the coming months. With Shaheen not seeking reelection, New Hampshire is set to send a new senator to Washington for the first time since 2009, when Sununu himself left the seat after his 2008 defeat.