Trump rallies for Hyde-Smith in Mississippi as Democrats pour late money into the race

President Trump flew into this small city near the Tennessee line Monday evening to headline a rally for Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith, an extraordinary show of presidential muscle in a state he carried by roughly 23 points in 2024 and where no Democrat has won a Senate seat since 1982.

The event, set for 6 p.m. Central at Crossroads Arena, comes nine days before Mississippians decide whether to send Hyde-Smith back to Washington for a second full term or hand the seat to Democrat Scott Colom, a district attorney from Columbus, or independent Ty Pinkins. "They've asked me to go. I'm going there, I think, on Monday. And I look forward to it," Trump said of the trip, according to a report from Gray DC carried by WCJB. RNC Chair Joe Gruters framed the stop as turnout insurance, telling the outlet, "This president knows how to turn out these low propensity voters."

Democrats open their checkbook in a state they rarely contest

The visit follows a move that would have seemed far-fetched a year ago: Senate Majority PAC, the Democratic outside group aligned with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, announced on Oct. 20 that it would spend $1.2 million on its first Mississippi television ad of the cycle, backing Colom through Election Day on Nov. 3, according to Mississippi Today's reporting on the buy. The 30-second spot casts Hyde-Smith as ineffective and presents Colom as a reform-minded prosecutor, part of roughly $8 million in total ad spending in the race, with Colom's campaign outspending Hyde-Smith's about $4.6 million to $3.2 million on advertising, per AdImpact figures cited in that reporting.

Campaign-finance filings posted with the Federal Election Commission through Oct. 14 show Hyde-Smith's committee has raised just over $4.6 million this cycle and holds roughly $1.4 million in cash on hand. Colom's committee has raised about $4.4 million over the same period, with roughly $1 million remaining in the bank — a rough fundraising parity that would have been unthinkable against a sitting Mississippi Republican senator in past cycles.

What the numbers actually show

Public polling in the race has been thin and, in at least one case, discredited: Newsweek retracted an October article after the firm behind the poll it cited admitted the numbers were fabricated as what it called a "social experiment" targeting the polling industry. The most recent credible survey still in circulation is an August poll from the left-leaning firm Data for Progress, which found Hyde-Smith leading Colom 44% to 38% with Pinkins drawing 7%, but a dead-even 40-40 tie once respondents were read brief biographical statements about each candidate, according to Newsweek's write-up of that survey. Hyde-Smith campaign manager Jake Monssen dismissed the poll as "partisan" and said it was "fielded to produce the headlines and fundraising appeals they wanted," adding, "Our internal numbers look strong." Nonpartisan handicappers including the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball still rate the seat solidly or safely Republican, even as both parties now treat it as worth real money.

• Trump carried Mississippi 60.9% to 38% over Kamala Harris in 2024
• Hyde-Smith raised about $4.6 million this cycle; Colom raised about $4.4 million, per FEC filings through Oct. 14
• Senate Majority PAC's $1.2 million buy, announced Oct. 20, is Democrats' first major ad investment in the race
• Voter registration for the Nov. 3 election closed Oct. 5; absentee voting has been underway since late September

A debate Hyde-Smith has yet to agree to

Colom has spent weeks pressing Hyde-Smith to share a stage with him. In late September he said he had accepted invitations from two Mississippi television stations and proposed a third debate on terms of her choosing, calling her "chicken" for not committing, according to WLOX's report on the challenge. Hyde-Smith's campaign responded that "losing candidates always want a debate about debates" and said the senator's Senate schedule had kept her from sitting for interviews, pointing instead to her record on Appropriations and Agriculture, committees her official Senate biography lists among her assignments. As of Monday, no debate had been scheduled, and Hyde-Smith has debated a general-election opponent only once in her Senate career, in a 2018 special-election runoff.

Monday's rally put that contrast on display without resolving it. Colom used Trump's visit to needle Hyde-Smith directly, posting on social media that "Cindy High Prices is scared and that's why she's sending Donald Trump down here," and pairing the jab with criticism of her record on health care, farm policy and the Jeffrey Epstein files, according to the same WCJB report. Hyde-Smith's campaign did not publicly respond to that post before the rally. Pinkins, the independent in the race, has separately pushed for his own series of debates across the state, arguing that voters deserve to hear from a candidate outside the two major parties in a contest that will help determine which party controls the Senate next year.

What's next

Mississippi's polls will be open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. on Nov. 3, with photo identification required of every voter under state law. Absentee voting, which began in September for Mississippians who qualify under the state's excuse-based system, continues through Election Day for mailed ballots postmarked in time, while in-person absentee voting runs through the Saturday before the election. Trump's campaign swing continues this week with additional stops planned in Texas, Ohio and Iowa, part of a broader late-cycle push into states Republicans normally consider safe — itself a signal of how seriously the party is treating turnout risk a week out from a midterm election that will decide control of the Senate.