Florida declares emergency in 25 Panhandle counties as Tropical Storm Isaias forms in the Gulf

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency for 25 Panhandle counties on Tuesday as a disorganized tropical depression in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico strengthened overnight into Tropical Storm Isaias, which forecasters now expect to become a hurricane by Thursday and approach the northern Gulf Coast by the weekend.

The storm, designated the ninth of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, was centered roughly 285 miles west of Progreso, Mexico, early Wednesday, according to the latest public advisory from the National Hurricane Center. It had maximum sustained winds of 40 mph and was drifting east-northeast at 8 mph, a slow and still-uncertain track that has kept forecasters from pinpointing exactly where it will come ashore.

What the forecast shows

The hurricane center's forecasters' technical discussion calls for Isaias to track east-northeast through Wednesday, then turn north and northeast as it passes north of the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday before swinging toward the northern Gulf coast on Friday. The agency's intensity models show the storm reaching roughly 110 mph winds, hurricane-strength and potentially major-hurricane strength, within about 48 hours, with landfall projected 60 to 72 hours out — placing possible arrival somewhere between Friday night and Saturday, broadly between Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle.

Forecasters cautioned that confidence in the exact track remains below average, with different computer models disagreeing on how far east or west the storm will curve before it reaches the coast. Rainfall of 2 to 4 inches was expected across the Bay of Campeche and the Yucatan through Thursday, followed by 3 to 6 inches, with isolated totals near 10 inches, across the northern Gulf Coast from Friday through the weekend. Forecasters also warned of life-threatening surf and rip currents spreading northward well ahead of the storm's center.

Florida activates emergency resources

Before dawn Wednesday, the system was still being referred to in official paperwork by its earlier name, Tropical Depression Nine; the upgrade to a named tropical storm came only in the most recent advisory cycle. That earlier designation is the one that appears on the executive order DeSantis signed a day before the upgrade, when his office issued Executive Order 26-202 covering Baker, Bay, Calhoun, Columbia, Dixie, Escambia, Franklin, Gadsden, Gilchrist, Gulf, Hamilton, Holmes, Jackson, Jefferson, Lafayette, Leon, Liberty, Madison, Okaloosa, Santa Rosa, Suwannee, Taylor, Walton, Wakulla and Washington counties — effectively the entire Florida Panhandle.

• 25 Panhandle counties placed under a state of emergency by Executive Order 26-202
• Storm forecast to strengthen from 40 mph to roughly 110 mph winds within about 48 hours
• Landfall projected in the 60-to-72-hour window, broadly between Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle
• 3 to 6 inches of rain forecast along the northern Gulf Coast, with isolated totals near 10 inches

The order authorizes the Florida Division of Emergency Management to pre-position personnel and supplies, and the state's Emergency Response Team has already begun staging generators, fuel, flood barriers, water, meals, tarps, protective "tiger dams" and sandbags in Tallahassee and the Santa Rosa area, according to the governor's office.

"Today, I signed an Executive Order issuing a state of emergency ahead of potential impacts from Tropical Depression 9. This order will allow the Florida Division of Emergency Management to stage critical preparedness resources and ensure Florida is ready to respond. Floridians should take this time to get disaster plans in place and ensure their hurricane supply kit is stocked."

— Gov. Ron DeSantis, in a statement announcing Executive Order 26-202

Who is in the storm's path

The National Weather Service office in Mobile, which covers the Alabama and Florida Panhandle coastline, told residents Wednesday that the system was "moving slowly east over the southwestern Gulf" and urged "all interests along the Northern Gulf Coast" to watch for updated forecasts, warning of dangerous boating conditions, elevated surf, a high rip-current risk and the potential for flash flooding well before any center makes landfall.

Coastal communities from southeastern Louisiana through coastal Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle fall within the broad range of possible landfall locations, and effects are arriving even before the center does. In the New Orleans area, local television meteorologists were already tracking a forecast cone running from south Mississippi to the Florida Panhandle for a Friday approach, and stations in the region reported that high school football games had begun to be rescheduled because of the deteriorating weather, a sign of how quickly outer rain bands and scheduling disruptions can precede a storm whose center is still days from shore.

Hurricane watches had not yet been posted for any portion of the coast as of the Wednesday morning advisory, but the hurricane center said watches would "likely be required for a portion of the U.S. northern Gulf coast later today," a step that typically triggers evacuation planning, fuel and water stockpiling, and school-closure decisions in the counties involved.

What happens next

The hurricane center's own storm list shows Isaias as one of two tropical cyclones being tracked worldwide Wednesday, alongside Hurricane Rachel in the eastern Pacific. Forecasters plan to issue new advisories every six hours as the storm organizes, with a sharper picture of landfall location expected to emerge Thursday once Isaias clears the Yucatan Peninsula and enters the open Gulf, where warm water and light wind shear are expected to favor rapid strengthening.

Emergency managers in Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama had not announced their own states of emergency as of Wednesday morning, though Florida officials said their early declaration was intended to buy time for logistics rather than to signal an unusually dangerous storm. Residents across the warned area were being urged to use the next two days to finalize evacuation plans, fuel vehicles, and secure a week's worth of food, water and medication, in keeping with the standard guidance repeated in the governor's statement.