Brazil Heads to Runoff Vote Between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro

Brazilians return to the polls Sunday to decide between President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in a presidential runoff that will determine the country's direction for the next four years, after neither candidate won a majority in a first round marked by a rightward shift in Congress.

Brazil's electoral court, the Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, says more than 158 million Brazilians are registered to vote. According to the court's official first-round results from the October 4 vote, Bolsonaro, of the Liberal Party, led with roughly 56.1 million votes, or 47.03%, to Lula's roughly 53.9 million votes, or 45.16%. Because neither cleared the 50% threshold required for an outright win, the race advances to a second round.

A family name returns to the ballot

Flávio Bolsonaro, 45, is the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who is barred from running again. He has campaigned with Alfredo Gaspar as his running mate. Lula, 80, is seeking a fourth, non-consecutive term with Geraldo Alckmin, his current vice president, again on the ticket as part of a broad coalition. Coverage from Euronews and ITV News both noted that the first round also produced gains for the right in Brazil's Congress, a shift that will shape whichever candidate ultimately governs.

The runoff campaign has been contentious. A televised debate collapsed on October 1 after a ruling by the electoral court prompted Flávio Bolsonaro to withdraw, with his campaign citing what it called "censorship imposed by the TSE"; the broadcaster Globo cancelled the debate shortly before air time. The two candidates were later interviewed separately by Globo rather than appearing together. The campaigns have also traded accusations over outside consulting work, after Brazilian news outlet The Intercept Brasil reported that Flávio Bolsonaro's campaign paid several hundred thousand reais to a cybersecurity and data firm whose pitch materials described services including voter-group targeting and coordinated online messaging; the campaign has said it hired the firm for information-security purposes.

Polls close Sunday evening local time, and Brazil's fully electronic voting system has historically allowed the electoral court to report a winner within hours of polls closing. The president-elect is scheduled to be sworn in on January 5. Markets and policymakers across Latin America are watching closely, since the winner will set the tone for Brazil's fiscal policy, its relationship with the U.S. and China, and the future of the social programs that have defined Lula's current term. Whichever candidate prevails will take office facing a Congress that leans further right than at any point during Lula's current term.