Rubio tells allies US is not planning new Iran strikes as pressure shifts to sanctions

Secretary of State Marco Rubio has told several allied foreign ministers that the United States is not expected to launch new military strikes against Iran "for the time being," according to multiple reports citing U.S. and foreign officials, marking a notable shift in tone after weeks of high tension in the Persian Gulf.

The message, first reported by Axios and corroborated by regional outlets, indicates the administration is leaning instead on financial isolation and naval enforcement to squeeze Tehran, while leaving open the possibility of retaliation if Iran strikes first.

Central to the shift, officials say, is the clearing of naval mines from most of the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which roughly a fifth of the world's oil transits. One U.S. official described the mine-clearing operation as having stripped Iran of its ability to hold the shipping lane hostage.

Economic pressure campaign takes center stage

The pivot toward economic tools follows Monday's announcement by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent of "Operation Economic Outcast," a sweeping sanctions push the administration has billed internally as an "economic D-Day" against Iran. According to a Treasury Department statement, the Office of Foreign Assets Control sanctioned more than 60 entities, individuals and vessels spanning the United Arab Emirates, Hong Kong, China, Singapore and Switzerland, targeting a shadow-fleet network accused of laundering Iranian oil revenue to the Revolutionary Guard.

A State Department spokesperson told Axios the administration views Iran's economy as being in serious distress and its military substantially degraded, and that Washington intends to keep severing the regime's remaining financial lifelines rather than escalate militarily in the near term.

Tehran has signaled it will not simply absorb the pressure. Iran's newly installed security chief, Mohsen Rezaei, warned this week that the country would respond to the sanctions campaign "in a seismic manner," language that has kept regional capitals on edge even as the immediate risk of new U.S. airstrikes appears to have receded.

The de-escalation in rhetoric comes as the administration also begins repositioning some diplomatic personnel back to missions in the Middle East that had been drawn down amid the earlier crisis, a step officials say reflects cautious confidence that the maritime and economic strategy is holding. Still, American forces in the region remain on alert, and officials briefed on the matter stressed that the pause on new strikes is conditional and could be reversed quickly if Iranian-aligned forces target U.S. personnel, shipping or allies.

Analysts at the Atlantic Council and other Washington think tanks have cautioned that sanctions alone have rarely been sufficient to force fundamental policy change from Tehran, and that the durability of the current standoff will depend heavily on whether China, a major buyer of Iranian crude, complies with the new restrictions or continues to provide Iran an economic outlet.

The Strait of Hormuz carries roughly a fifth of global oil consumption on any given day, making it one of the world's most closely watched chokepoints; even a temporary disruption there has historically moved global energy prices within hours. That leverage is precisely why officials point to the mine-clearing effort as strategically significant well beyond its immediate military value.