Seven armed groups unite to try to topple Ethiopia's Abiy Ahmed

Seven Ethiopian armed and political factions, including former battlefield enemies from the country's 2020-2022 civil war, announced on Sunday that they have formed a coalition aimed at removing Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's government and installing a transitional administration in its place.

The group, calling itself the Ethiopian Peoples' Forces Alliance for Survival, brings together the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) and the Amhara Fano National Movement, which fought on opposite sides of a war that killed hundreds of thousands of people, alongside the Oromo Liberation Army, the Ogaden National Liberation Front, the Afar Revolutionary Democratic Unity Front, the Benishangul Peoples' Liberation Movement and the Gumuz Peoples' Democratic Movement. In a joint statement carried on Tigray's TPLF-affiliated Tigrai TV, the groups accused the ruling Prosperity Party of imposing "dictatorial" rule and said they would work toward "an inclusive transitional government."

Old enemies, one statement

The significance of the announcement lies less in the number of signatories than in who they are. Fano militias fought alongside federal troops against the TPLF during the 2020-2022 Tigray war, a conflict that, according to the US State Department, cost roughly 600,000 lives before a November 2022 truce. Fano later turned against Abiy's government, and fighting in the Amhara region has continued since 2023. The Oromo Liberation Army has fought federal forces in Oromia since 2018.

Fano commander Zemene Kassie framed the alliance in stark terms in the statement read on Tigrai TV.

"We bear the historic responsibility of overthrowing this regime."

Magnus Taylor, an analyst with the International Crisis Group, cautioned that the coalition's ambitions may outrun its cohesion. He said collaboration among the seven groups could be "hamstrung by weak groups, geographical distances and political differences," pointing to the practical difficulty of coordinating fighters spread from the Eritrean border in the north to the Somali region in the south.

Addis Ababa points to Eritrea

Abiy's spokesperson, Billene Seyoum, responded to the announcement by saying its members had for some time been receiving "the financial backing of Ethiopia's neighbour and historic adversary Eritrea." In a text message to reporters on Monday, she said the alliance's formation was "only attesting to what the Ethiopian government has been alleging time and again." Eritrea's information ministry did not respond to a request for comment, and Asmara has repeatedly denied similar Ethiopian accusations in the past.

The claim reflects the deep suspicion between the two governments since their brief 2018 rapprochement, for which Abiy won the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize, curdled again after Eritrean troops fought alongside Ethiopian forces against the TPLF in 2020-2022. Addis Ababa has since accused Asmara of arming Fano and other opposition factions, allegations Eritrea denies.

A truce already under strain

The alliance was announced days after a drone strike in northwestern Tigray damaged a humanitarian aid convoy carrying more than 41 metric tons of food assistance intended for displaced people, injuring a 13-year-old girl. The origin of the drone has not been independently established. The incident, coming amid reports of troop movements near the Tigray front line, has heightened fears that the 2022 Pretoria Agreement, which ended the war between federal forces and the TPLF, is fraying.

The United Nations said it was "deeply concerned" by the developments. Spokesperson Stéphane Dujarric, speaking for Secretary-General António Guterres, said the world body continues to support African Union-led efforts to preserve the Pretoria accord and urged all sides to step back from confrontation.

"Military action will not resolve political differences or address underlying grievances."

The European Union has separately warned that the truce is at risk. In a statement on developments in Tigray, the bloc's diplomatic service said it was following the region "with great concern" and called for immediate de-escalation to avoid jeopardising the Permanent Cessation of Hostilities Agreement. In neighboring Amhara, the EU has said it is "seriously concerned" by alleged targeted killings of civilians in the town of Merawi and has called for an independent investigation, warning that an extended state of emergency in the region risks further curbing residents' rights.

Civilians caught between fronts

Years of overlapping conflict in Tigray, Amhara and Oromia have displaced millions of Ethiopians and left humanitarian agencies struggling to reach communities cut off by fighting. Washington has already moved against individuals it blames for undermining the fragile peace: in June, the State Department imposed targeted visa restrictions on hardline TPLF figures under the Immigration and Nationality Act, citing tensions that had "threatened to reignite the conflict in northern Ethiopia." The department's Ethiopia travel advisory, renewed in April, warns against all travel to Tigray, including areas along the border with Eritrea, because of active armed conflict.

For residents of the affected regions, the new alliance raises the prospect of a widening war rather than the peace many had hoped for after 2022. Displaced families in Tigray, Amhara and Oromia have already endured repeated waves of upheaval, and aid workers say a further deterioration would strain a humanitarian response that is already stretched thin across the country.

What comes next

Abiy's government has not detailed how it intends to respond militarily or politically to the new coalition, and it remains unclear whether the seven groups can translate a joint statement into coordinated action on the ground. Analysts note that some of the alliance's members have limited fighting capacity and no history of operating together, and that old rivalries between Tigrayan and Amhara nationalists in particular could resurface once a common enemy is no longer the immediate concern.

Diplomats in the region will be watching whether the announcement pushes federal forces toward a harder line in Tigray and Amhara, or whether international pressure, including from the African Union panel that helped broker the 2022 Pretoria deal, can keep the broader conflict from reigniting. The UN and EU statements this week suggest outside powers see the risk of escalation as real, even as they stop short of predicting how the newly declared alliance will fare.