Early Voting Opens in Texas as Talarico Outraises Paxton More Than 6-to-1 in Dead-Heat Senate Race

Early voting opened across Texas on Monday in one of the most expensive and closely watched Senate races in the country, a contest that pits Republican nominee Ken Paxton, the state's attorney general, against Democratic state Rep. James Talarico for the seat long held by Sen. John Cornyn. Voters have until Oct. 30 to cast ballots in person before the Nov. 3 general election, according to the Texas Secretary of State's office, which lists Monday as the first day of early voting by personal appearance.

The race is one of a handful nationally that will determine whether Republicans keep their narrow Senate majority, and it has drawn national money and attention befitting that stake. Paxton, backed by President Trump, ousted Cornyn in a bitter May primary runoff. Since then, Talarico has built a financial advantage over his Republican opponent that is unusual for a statewide Texas race, even as independent polling shows the contest within a point or two.

The money gap

Federal Election Commission records show just how lopsided the fundraising has become. Talarico's committee, Talarico for Texas, has raised $128.77 million since the campaign began, according to its most recent FEC summary covering through Sept. 30, with $114.18 million spent and $14.59 million remaining on hand. Paxton's committee, Ken Paxton for Senate, has raised $19.49 million over the same stretch, spent $14.56 million and holds $4.93 million in cash, FEC filings show.

The gap narrowed somewhat in the most recent quarter. Paxton's campaign said it brought in a personal-best $18 million between July and September when joint fundraising committees are included, according to the Texas Tribune, which also reported that Republican super PACs have spent more than $175 million on ads supporting him this cycle. On the FEC's principal-committee figures alone, KSAT reported Paxton raised $10.2 million in the third quarter against Talarico's $60.2 million, with outside PACs backing each candidate adding tens of millions more — $17.9 million for the pro-Paxton Lone Star Liberty PAC, whose top donors include Elon Musk, and $9.6 million for the pro-Talarico Lone Star Rising PAC.

From dethroned incumbent to toss-up

The seat was not supposed to be competitive. Cornyn, a four-term senator and former Senate Republican whip, was expected to coast to renomination until Paxton entered the primary with Trump's eventual endorsement. Paxton defeated Cornyn in a May 26 runoff after neither cleared 50% in the first round, a contest both parties spent roughly $100 million on, according to Ballotpedia's election coverage.

Paxton brings into the general election a political record that national Republicans openly worried could cost them the seat: he was impeached by the Texas House in 2023 on bribery and corruption allegations, acquitted by the state Senate, and remains under felony securities-fraud indictment stemming from his personal finances. Talarico, a 36-year-old former middle-school teacher and seminary student now in his fourth term in the Texas House, has leaned into a message aimed at both Democratic turnout and Republican-leaning suburban and Latino voters uneasy with Paxton's baggage.

Two independent polls released in the past few days put the race within the margin of error. A CBS News/YouGov survey showed Talarico leading Paxton 51% to 49%, while a University of Houston Hobby School poll found Talarico ahead by two points among likely voters — with 98% of likely Democratic voters backing him compared with 88% of likely Republican voters sticking with Paxton. The Texas Tribune's own reporting on the money race concluded simply that most analysts rate the race a tossup.

Closing arguments

Both campaigns spent the final weekend before early voting making their closing pitch, with Paxton holding a rally in San Antonio and Talarico campaigning in Plano. Paxton has cast his opponent in sharply personal terms for months, branding him an extremist in campaign messaging and public remarks throughout the race.

"James Talarico can raise all the coastal money he wants, but he can't hide his radical record from Texas voters," Paxton senior adviser Nick Maddux said, touting the campaign's third-quarter haul and more than 160,000 unique donors.

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce added its own weight to Paxton's closing argument Sunday, formally endorsing him over Talarico. "The choice is clear in Texas," said Neil Bradley, the Chamber's executive vice president and chief policy officer, adding that Paxton "has been a defender of free enterprise and pro-growth policies that empower American businesses to thrive," according to the Washington Examiner.

What's next

Early in-person voting continues through Oct. 30, with mail-ballot applications due to be received by county officials by Oct. 23. Both campaigns and outside groups must file pre-general-election FEC reports covering Oct. 1-14 by Oct. 22, which will offer the next official snapshot of the money race before voters head to the polls Nov. 3. Both candidates have scheduled near-daily events through Election Day, including dueling stops this week in Tarrant County, a swing region both campaigns see as pivotal to the outcome of a race that could help decide which party controls the Senate for the back half of President Trump's term.