Sudan and Ethiopia shut each other's consulates as drone dispute escalates

Ethiopia and Sudan shut down each other's consulates this week in a tit-for-tat diplomatic rupture, the latest sign of deteriorating relations between the two Horn of Africa neighbors amid Sudan's civil war. Ethiopian officials expelled six staff members of Sudan's consulate in Asosa, a town near the Sudanese border, and ordered the mission closed, giving the diplomats 48 hours to leave the country. Sudanese officials confirmed the staff departed on the evening of November 3. Sudan responded by closing Ethiopia's consulate in the eastern city of Gedaref and declaring its diplomatic staff there persona non grata, according to officials who spoke to Reuters and AFP on condition of anonymity. Neither government issued a public statement explaining the move, and Ethiopia's foreign ministry did not announce the expulsions, unlike a similar move against Eritrean diplomats in October.

The closures followed a formal complaint Sudan's foreign ministry lodged on November 1 with the United Nations Security Council and the African Union's Peace and Security Council, accusing Ethiopia of allowing the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces to launch one-way attack drones from Ethiopian soil against Sudanese civilian infrastructure. Sudan's army-led Transitional Sovereign Council says it has documented 70 such attacks using 187 drones between February and late October, killing or wounding 484 civilians and killing 176 Sudanese soldiers. The government says drones struck electricity substations in the northern towns of al-Dabba and Abu Hamad on November 1, cutting power, and blamed the RSF. Ethiopia has repeatedly rejected the accusations as baseless and instead accuses Sudan's army of backing Tigrayan rebels fighting Ethiopia's federal government in its northern Tigray region. Both governments deny the charges leveled against them.

A widening regional rift

The Security Council held a closed session on Sudan on November 5, according to the UN's own meetings coverage, though the public record of that meeting does not detail what was discussed. The dispute is the latest in a string of regional ruptures involving Addis Ababa: Ethiopia expelled ten Eritrean diplomats and shut its embassy in Asmara on October 1, prompting Eritrea to sever diplomatic ties, and separately expelled an Egyptian diplomat last month amid long-running tension over Ethiopia's Blue Nile dam. Analysts and officials have warned that Sudan's war, now in its fourth year, risks drawing in neighboring conflicts, including Ethiopia's internal fight with Tigrayan forces. Amjad Farid, a political and foreign affairs adviser to Sudan's Transitional Sovereign Council, said Khartoum is making "every possible effort to avoid an open war with Ethiopia" while asserting its "right to defend its territory."

The underlying civil war between Sudan's army and the RSF, which began in April 2023, has killed tens of thousands of people and displaced more than 14 million, according to UN estimates, and the African Union Commission has separately condemned the broader pattern of drone attacks hitting Sudanese civilians, including strikes in the Abyei area. The United Nations has likewise repeatedly condemned drone strikes across Sudan's conflict, with the secretary-general's spokesperson saying in a December statement that attacks on civilian sites, including a children's nursery and a hospital, "may constitute war crimes."

What happens next is uncertain. A direct military confrontation between Sudan's army and Ethiopia would strain forces already fighting the RSF on multiple fronts, and officials on both sides have signaled they want to avoid full-scale war even as diplomatic channels narrow. The Security Council and African Union have not yet issued a formal response to Sudan's complaint, and it remains unclear whether either body will take further action in the coming days.